The Sat Report: Papal Conclave 2025 - In search of Unity
Some thoughts on the Conclave to elect the next Vicar of Christ
On Wednesday, May 7th, 133 men will have the most important task in the world, selecting one of them to be the Bishop of Rome. The magic number is 89, that is the number of votes a candidate must achieve to be elected the successor of Peter and confirm his brothers in faith.
On some procedural things, on Wednesday morning the Holy Sacrifice of the Mass for the Election of the Roman Pontiff will be celebrated in St. Peter’s Basilica by Giovanni Battista Cardinal Re. At 4.30pm Rome time the Cardinal electors will make their way to the Sistine Chapel, and each one will make an oath of secrecy on the Holy Gospels. As both the Dean and Vice-Dean of the College of Cardinals, Cardinals Re and Sandri, are not eligible to participate due to age, the most senior Cardinal Bishop, Pietro Cardinal Parolin, will be preside over the Conclave. On the Wednesday afternoon there will be a round of voting. The next subsequent days there will be two rounds in the morning, and two rounds in the afternoon. After three days, if no one has achieved 89 votes, the Conclave will break for a day of prayer and reflection, and then the process repeats. When the white smoke finally appears and it is all over the Cardinal Protodeacon, Dominique François Joseph Cardinal Mamberti, will from the central loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica announce to the world the name of the new Pope. That is unless Cardinal Mamberti is elected, then Mario Cardinal Zenari, will have the honours.
The following is going to be a blunt assessment of the lay of the land.
Twelve years on from the last Conclave, many of the same issues facing the Church remain, and many more have been added. The unifying detente that John Paul II and Benedict XVI brought between the opposing factions of the interpretation of Vatican II has been shattered. The Roman Curia still needs reform. Despite Pope Francis’ valiant efforts, it remains far too bloated. The Vatican is facing a financial black hole. Impossible potential openings on matters of settled doctrinal certainties have been teased, causing consternation and hurt to both sides of the argument respectively. Marko Rupnik is still a priest. Zanchetta is still a bishop, and who some inexplicable reason is living in Rome. We the faithful people of God are waiting for the Church to finally get a grip on clerical sexual abuse and long for the day when zero tolerance means zero tolerance. May the next Pope be the one to accomplish this. More than anything we need a Pope that will be bring unity back to the Church, that overcomes all the petty, unnecessary divisions that have emerged over the last 12 years.
One of the major turning points of the previous Pontificate, one which marked the beginning of the autocratic tendencies that would become a hallmark of Francis, was the ordinary consistory of Cardinals convoked in 2014. Pope Francis charged Walter Cardinal Kasper with delivering a keynote address to the entire College of Cardinals, espousing the need to readmit the divorced and ‘remarried’ to the sacraments, under the auspices of mercy. This did not go down well with the College; the suggestion was rejected near unanimously. Pope Francis, for whatever reason, probably to avoid having to answer difficult questions, *cough* dubia, would not hold a meeting with the whole College of Cardinals again. The end result being a College of Cardinals that barely know each other, and know have the unenviable task of choosing one from their ranks to be the Pope.
We now have the absurd situation of Cardinals walking around with name tags on their cassocks at the General Congregations, the pre-conclave meetings discussing the state of the Church and the world, and the qualities needed of the man to face these issues. The situation is such that the Vatican has published a 500 page book, with profiles of the Sacred College, and has provided this to all the Cardinals, so that they know who on earth they are actually voting for. Whoever at the Vatican complied the book is certainly going to have a major sway on who is elected Pope. Interestingly, the first line of each profile is whether said Cardinal has been a parish priest or missionary. No comment if they have been a particular good one or not. Perhaps that will be role of Synodality in the future. Or not. I would think statistics on the vocations in their respective dioceses would be a better a metric to compare candidates, but that is just me.
I’m going to go against the grain of most commentators and say that although this is the largest conclave ever assembled, in terms of the number of voting Cardinals, there is a seriously dearth of quality candidates. You can probably count on two hands the men who have the leadership qualities, competence, and holiness to be Pope. Far too many to mention lack the intellectual rigor to run a parish, let alone hold high office. I don’t care what advanced degrees they have, or where they went to college. You only need to hear some of these men talk. I’m sorry, it is embarrassing. How the Church got into this situation is whole another story. That is not so say that God can’t work miracles with imperfect vessels. Of course He can.
The biggest single impact on the outcome of this conclave will be Pope Francis. He named the overwhelming majority of electors, and this election will be a referendum on his Pontificate, his style of governing the Universal Church and his priorities. Pope Francis used his last consistory in December to define his legacy and, as was often the case during his Pontificate, settle some scores. He elevated Italians who had taken his side against the Zuppi faction of the Italian Bishops' Conference with regards to frociaggine in Italian seminaries. He elevated Bokalic to settle scores in Argentina, and chose Bychok over Shevchuk, as to not alienate Putin, in addition to putting the latter in his place for his most respectful criticism of Francis’ words and gestures regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Then there is the usual lobbying and political interference from the outside world. Millions of words have been written about this Conclave. I’ve even added my 2 cents. The Italian media’s preferred candidate is Cardinal Parolin, who has been seen as the leading candidate during the interregnum. The Italian Press has been full of briefings both for and against Parolin, and the same can be said of his closest Italian rival Pierbattista Cardinal Pizzaballa. Through the Italians are desperate for another Italian, I think the Argentine with the name Bergoglio was Italian enough, and the College will look elsewhere.
Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines is Beijing’s preferred candidate, and the Chinese Communist Party have been involved in election interference to derail the candidature of Parolin. The Caritas debacle certainly torpedoes Tagle chances, or one would hope.
There have been rumours of the French government briefing against Robert Cardinal Sarah, due to his outspoken rhetoric against the Islamification of Europe, and the potential threat his potential Pontificate would pose to the European Union, and the boost that it would give to anti-EU political parties who are putting the safety of European citizens as the priority against the need to welcome migrants from the Islamic world. I don’t buy these rumours. Plus, Sarah is too old.
The new Ecclessial Movements that have dominated Church life since Vatican II, and certainly still dominate the Vatican are also all lobbying for their preferred candidates. Andrea Riccardi, the influential leader of the Sant’Egidio Community, who was a staunch defender of the policies of Pope Francis in life, has already turned critical of him in death. For what it’s worth he prefers Matteo Cardinal Zuppi or José Tolentino Cardinal Calaça de Mendonça. Incidentally both members of the 2019 consistory, one of the poorest in the history of the Roman Church.
Tradition being the democracy of the dead, as Chesterton once put it, Jean-Marc Cardinal Aveline would have been Pope Francis’ favorite candidate to succeed him. Other favorites of the late Pontiff are at this point I think are too tainted by the various divisive actions of the previous pontificate to have a realistic shot of being elected. Tucho, Roche, Hollerich, Grech, Czerny, and to a certain extent Parolin, even though he has tried to distance himself from Francis over the last four years.
I have no idea who is going to be the next Pope. I certainly have three names, out of the ten or so men that in my humble opinion have the attributes to lead to the Church. I shall not be saying who they are, but as a hint, their names have not been mentioned in this article.
The most important thing for us as Catholics is to pray. Pray that God is merciful on his people, pray that he gives us a wise and holy shepherd once again to lead Church Militant, against the forces of evil that rail against her. The next Pope cannot fix all the problems that are facing the Church. No, but he can do a great deal in righting the ship, fixing the holes, and tending to the wounded on board. We the faithful can, through our prayers and sacrifices, do a great deal in tackling the problems facing the Church. The next Pope, if he is a bad one, can certainly make the situation worse. I’m remined of the words of Pope Benedict XVI, then retired in the Mater Ecclesiae Monastery, when Pope Francis visited him with the five Cardinals he elevated in the 2017 Consistory, remarked “the Lord wins in the end”. Christ by His death, resurrection and ascension into Heaven has already obtained for us the victory.